SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Beatty, Timothy K.M..

This paper explores a puzzling empirical regularity: households pay less for foods as the time since receipt of their last paycheck increases. I leverage randomization with regard to paycheck timing to causally identify the effect of time since paycheck receipt on prices. Estimates of the decline in prices range between 5% and 6% percent, over the course of a month. I investigate several potential explanations for this behavior, including credit constraints and stockpiling. I find evidence that the effect is driven by low-income households and exacerbated by stockpiling behavior.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE RETIREMENT-CONSUMPTION PUZZLE FOR FOOD-AT-HOME AND AWAY-FROM-HOME EXPENDITURES IN GERMANY

Palavras-chave: Unit Values; Paycheck Timing; Permanent Income Hypothesis; Consumer/Household Economics; D91; E21.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61008

Drescher, Larissa S.; Roosen, Jutta.

According to Ando and Modigliani (1957), consumers pass different stages of a lifecycle with different impact on demand. The criticism that the life-cycle theory neglects generational effects and concentrates on ageing effects only has led to the application of the cohort analysis which decomposes not only age, but also period and cohort effects. Following these ideas, this paper presents results of a cohort analysis on food-at-home and away-from-home consumption covering 25 years of German consumption data. Special attention is given to the retirement-consumption puzzle which is the unanticipated drop in consumption after retirement. Results of seemingly unrelated regressions indicate that there are significant age, period and cohort effects of...

Closing the Eyes on a Gloomy Future: Psychological Causes and Economic Consequences

Palavras-chave: Cohort analysis; Retirement-consumption puzzle; Food-at-home expenditures; Food-away- from-home expenditures; Germany; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; D91; E21; J10.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116441

¿Cómo enfrentar una geografía adversa?: el rol de los activos públicos y privados

Laajaj, Rachid.

This paper analyzes the impact of economic prospects on one’s time preference. Research in psychol- ogy has shown how individuals modify their preferences in order to reduce their cognitive dissonance, which is the uncomfortable tension felt when simultaneously holding conflicting thoughts. It occurs among the poor when simultaneously caring about their future welfare while having gloomy economic prospects. Hence closing their eyes on the future can reduce their psychological distress at the cost of worsening their future economic wellbeing. This paper offers a new theoretical approach that decom- poses time discounting and analyzes the endogenous determination of one’s time horizon. The model predicts that, below a certain wealth, the time horizon of an...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: Endogenous time preference; Cognitive dissonance; Time horizon; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; D91; O12; Q12.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123933

Escobal D'Angelo, Javier; Torero, Maximo.

En el Perú, país con una asombrosa diversidad ecológica, con 84 zonas climáticas y paisajes distintos, con selvas tropicales, altas cordilleras y desiertos, puede que el contexto geográfico no sea suficiente para explicar las variaciones regionales en ingresos y bienestar, pero si es muy significativo. La pregunta más importante que este trabajo trata de responder es: qué rol juegan las variables geográficas - tanto naturales como antropogénicas - al explicarse las diferencias de gasto per cápita entre las diversas regiones del Perú. Cómo han cambiado estas influencias en el tiempo, a través de qué medios han sido transmitidas, y si el acceso a los activos privados y públicos ha compensado los efectos de una geografía adversa.

Consumption Smoothing? Livestock, Insurance and Drought in Rural Burkina Faso

Palavras-chave: Nivel de vida; Ingresos de hogares; Gastos de consumo; Bienestar social; Analisis regional; Crecimiento económico; Perú; Standard of living; Household income; Consumer expenditure; Social welfare; Regional analysis; Economic growth; Peru; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; D91; R11; Q12.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37771

Kazianga, Harounan; Udry, Christopher R..

This paper explores the extent of consumption smoothing between 1981 and 1985 in rural Burkina Faso. In particular, we examine the extent to which livestock, grain storage and interhousehold transfers are used to smooth consumption against income risk. The survey coincided with a period of severe drought, so that the results provide direct evidence on the effectiveness of these various insurance mechanisms when they are the most needed. We find evidence of little consumption smoothing. In particular, there is almost no risk sharing, and households rely almost exclusively on self-insurance in the form of adjustments to grain stocks to smooth out consumption. The outcome, however is far from complete smoothing. Hence the main risk-coping strategies, which...

Demographic Determinants of Savings: Estimating and Interpreting the Aggregate Association in Asia

Palavras-chave: Livestock; Consumption smoothing; Permanent income hypothesis; Precautionary saving; Risk sharing; Risk and Uncertainty; D91; O16.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28497

Schultz, T. Paul.

Life cycle savings is proposed as one explanation for much of the increase in savings and economic growth in Asia. The association between the age composition of a nations population and its savings rate, observed within 16 Asian countries from 1952 to 1992, is reestimated here to be less than a quarter the size reported in a seminal study, which assumed lagged savings is exogenous. Specification tests as well as common sense imply, moreover, that lagged savings is likely to be endogenous, and when estimated accordingly there remains no significant dependence of savings on the age composition, measured in several ways. Research should consider lifetime savings as a substitute for children, and model the causes for the decline in fertility which changes...

Effects of Global Climate Change on Nigerian Agriculture: An Empirical Analysis

Palavras-chave: Life cycle savings; Aging; Asian growth; Demographic transition; Financial Economics; D91; J11; O11; O53.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28409

Apata, Temidayo Gabriel; Ogunyinka, A.I.; Sanusi, R.A.; Ogunwande, S..

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects of global warming on Nigerian agriculture and estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change. Data used for this study are from both secondary and primary sources. The set of secondary sources of data helped to examine the coverage of the three scenarios (1971-1980; 1981-1990 and 1991-2000). The primary data set consists of 1500 respondents’ but only 1250 cases were useful. This study analyzed determinants of farm-level climate adaptation measures using a Multinomial choice and stochastic-simulation model to investigate the effects of rapid climatic change on grain production and the human population in Nigeria. The model calculates the production, consumption and storage of grains...

Effects on School Enrollment and Performance of a Conditional Transfers Program in Mexico

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Adaptation; Economic consequences; Farm level productivity; Average Rainfall; Nigeria; Food Security and Poverty; D6; D91; E21; O13; Q01; Q2.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91751

Dubois, Pierre; de Janvry, Alain; Sadoulet, Elisabeth.

We study the effects of a conditional transfers program on school enrollment and performance in Mexico. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing the dynamic educational decision and process including the endogeneity and uncertainty of performance (passing grades) and the effect of a conditional cash transfer program for children enrolled at school. Careful identification of the program impact on this model is studied. This framework is used to study the Mexican social program Progresa in which a randomized experiment has been implemented and allows us to identify the effect of the conditional cash transfer program on enrollment and performance at school. Using the rules of the conditional program, we can explain the different incentive effects...

Getting to the Top of Mind: How Reminders Increase Saving

Palavras-chave: Education demand; Schooling decisions; School performance; Dynamic decisions; Treatment effects; Transfer program; Randomized experiment; Mexico.; Labor and Human Capital; C14; C25; D91; H52; H53; I21; I28; J24.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25064

Karlan, Dean S.; McConnell, Margaret; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Zinman, Jonathan.

We develop and test a simple model of limited attention in intertemporal choice. The model posits that individuals fully attend to consumption in all periods but fail to attend to some future lumpy expenditure opportunities. This asymmetry generates some predictions that overlap with models of present-bias. Our model also generates the unique predictions that reminders may increase saving, and that reminders will be more effective when they increase the salience of a specific expenditure. We find support for these predictions in three field experiments that randomly assign reminders to new savings account holders.

Group versus Individual Liability: Long Term Evidence from Philippine Microcredit Lending Groups

Palavras-chave: Intertemporal consumer choice; Savings; Attention; Consumer/Household Economics; Financial Economics; D91; E21.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92001

Gine, Xavier; Karlan, Dean S..

Group liability in microcredit purports to improve repayment rates through peer screening, monitoring, and enforcement. However, it may create excessive pressure, and discourage reliable clients from borrowing. Two randomized trials tested the overall effect, as well as specific mechanisms. The first removed group liability from pre-existing groups and the second randomly assigned villages to either group or individual liability loans. In both, groups still held weekly meetings. We find no increase in default and larger groups after three years in pre-existing areas, and no change in default but fewer groups created after two years in the expansion areas.

Group versus Individual Liability: Long Term Evidence from Philippine Microcredit Lending Groups

Palavras-chave: Microfinance; Group lending; Group liability; Joint liability; Social capital; Microenterprises; Informal economies; Access to finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Financial Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; C93; D71; D82; D91; G21; O12; O16; O17.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50951

Gine, Xavier; Karlan, Dean.

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Microfinance; Group lending; Group liability; Joint liability; Social capital; Micro-enterprises; Informal economies; Access to finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Financial Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; C93; D71; D82; D91; G21; O12; O16; O17.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/229136

Measuring the Gains to Groundwater Management with Recursive Utility

Msangi, Siwa.

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/20/05.

OBESITY AND HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING: AN EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS

Palavras-chave: Recursive Utility; Dynamic Games; Groundwater Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; D91; C73; Q25.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19212

Richards, Timothy J.; Hamilton, Stephen F.; Pofahl, Geoffrey M..

Behavioral economists maintain that addictions such as alcoholism, smoking and over-eating represent examples of present-bias in decision making that is fundamentally irrational. In this article, we develop a model of present bias and apparently hyperbolic discounting that is fully consistent with rational behavior. We construct an experiment to test our hypothesis and to determine whether discount rates differ for individuals who engage in behaviors that could endanger their health. Our results show that discount functions are quasi-hyperbolic in shape, and that obesity and drinking are positively related to the discount rate. Anti-obesity policy, therefore, would be best directed to informing individuals as to the long-term implications of short-term...

Obesity and Hyperbolic Discounting: An Experimental Analysis

Palavras-chave: Addiction; Discounting; Experiments; Hyperbolic; Obesity; Time-inconsistency; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C91; D12; D91; I18.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116410

Richards, Timothy J.; Hamilton, Stephen F.; Pofahl, Geoffrey M..

The Environmental Kuznets Curve in a World of Irreversibility

Palavras-chave: Addiction; Discounting; Experiments; Hyperbolic; Obesity; Time-inconsistency.; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; C91; D12; D91; I18..

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61186

Prieur, Fabien.

We develop an overlapping generations model where consumption is the source of polluting emissions. Pollution stock accumulates with emissions but is partially assimilated by nature at each period. The assimilation capacity of nature is limited and vanishes beyond a critical level of pollution. We first show that multiple equilibria exist. More importantly, some exhibit irreversible pollution levels although an abatement activity is operative. Thus, the simple engagement of maintenance does not necessarily suffice to protect an economy against convergence toward a steady state having the properties of an ecological and economic poverty trap. In contrast with earlier related studies, the emergence of the environmental Kuznets curve is no longer the rule....

The Role of Permanent Income and Demographics in Black/White Differences in Wealth

Palavras-chave: Overlapping Generations; Irreversible Pollution; Poverty Trap; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q56; D62; D91.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9546

Altonji, Joseph G.; Doraszelski, Ulrich.

We explore the extent to which the huge race gap in wealth can be explained with properly constructed income and demographic variables. In some instances we explain the entire wealth gap with income and demographics provided that we estimate the wealth model on a sample of whites. However, we typically explain a much smaller fraction when we estimate the wealth model on a black sample. Using sibling comparisons to control for intergenerational transfers and the effects of adverse history, we find that differences in income and demographics are not likely to account for the lower explanatory power of the black wealth models. Our analysis of growth models of wealth suggests that differences in savings behavior and/or rates of return play an important role.

Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence from a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines

Palavras-chave: Black-White wealth gap; Siblings; Savings; Consumer/Household Economics; D31; J7; D91.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28493

Ashraf, Nava; Karlan, Dean S.; Yin, Wesley.

We designed a commitment savings product for a Philippine bank and implemented it using a randomized control methodology. The savings product was intended for individuals who want to commit now to restrict access to their savings, and who were sophisticated enough to engage in such a mechanism. We conducted a baseline survey on 1777 existing or former clients of a bank. One month later, we offered the commitment product to a randomly chosen subset of 710 clients; 202 (28.4 percent) accepted the offer and opened the account. In the baseline survey, we asked hypothetical time discounting questions. Women who exhibited a lower discount rate for future relative to current tradeoffs, and hence potentially have a preference for commitment, were indeed...

What's Advertising Content Worth? Evidence from a Consumer Credit Marketing Field Experiment

Palavras-chave: Savings; Commitment; Hyperbolic preferences; Microfinance; Development economics; Program evaluation; Field experiment; Self-control; Financial Economics; C93; D01; D11; D12; D14; D81; D91; G11; O12.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28411

Bertrand, Marianne; Karlan, Dean S.; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Shafir, Eldar; Zinman, Jonathan.

Firms spend billions of dollars each year advertising consumer products in order to influence demand. Much of these outlays are on the creative design of advertising content. Creative content often uses nuances of presentation and framing that have large effects on consumer decision making in laboratory studies. But there is little field evidence on the effect of advertising content as it compares in magnitude to the effect of price. We analyze a direct mail field experiment in South Africa implemented by a consumer lender that randomized creative content and loan price simultaneously. We find that content has significant effects on demand. There is also some evidence that the magnitude of content sensitivity is large relative to price sensitivity....

What's Psychology Worth? A Field Experiment in the Consumer Credit Market

Palavras-chave: Economics of advertising; Economics & psychology; Behavioral; Economics; Cues; Microfinance; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Marketing; D01; M31; M37; C93; D12; D14; D21; D81; D91; O12.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47038

Bertrand, Marianne; Karlan, Dean S.; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Shafir, Eldar; Zinman, Jonathan.

Numerous laboratory studies report on behaviors inconsistent with rational economic models. How much do these inconsistencies matter in natural settings, when consumers make large, real decisions and have the opportunity to learn from experiences? We report on a field experiment designed to address this question. Incumbent clients of a lender in South Africa were sent letters offering them large, short-term loans at randomly chosen interest rates. Psychological features on the letter, which did not affect offer terms or economic content, were also independently randomized. Consistent with standard economics, the interest rate significantly affected loan take-up. Inconsistent with standard economics, the psychological features also significantly affected...